In early August a senior Saudi official, speaking anonymously, said intelligence indicated that the Houthis and Iraqi armed groups might launch new attacks under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The claim is plausible, unverifiable from open sources, and useful to the party making it. All three of those things are true at once, and separating them is … [Read more...] about Riyadh Says the IRGC Is Coordinating Houthi and Iraqi Militia Attacks: Assessing the Claim
Analysis
Indicators and Warnings: What Would Signal a Saudi Ground Campaign in Yemen
Riyadh is reported to be weighing military options against the Houthis, including a ground operation conducted by Yemeni government forces with Saudi air and logistical support, while simultaneously exploring de-escalation through Omani channels. The kingdom denies the talks and has not announced the operation. What follows is a set of observables that would distinguish … [Read more...] about Indicators and Warnings: What Would Signal a Saudi Ground Campaign in Yemen
Iran’s Hormuz Conditions Make the Oman Corridor a Technical Deal, Not a Reopening
Two descriptions of the Strait of Hormuz are in circulation. Washington says the waterway is open, that mines have been cleared, and that oil is moving. Tehran says the strait stays shut until the United States corrects its conduct. Both statements are being made by people with access to the same hydrographic reality, which means the disagreement is about definitions and … [Read more...] about Iran’s Hormuz Conditions Make the Oman Corridor a Technical Deal, Not a Reopening
Yemen’s Ground War Is Restarting in Marib and Hadramout
The maritime campaign has drawn most of the attention, and it is the smaller half of what is happening. In early August, Houthi forces fired ballistic missiles from al-Jawf into government military camps in Hadramout and Marib, killing around thirty soldiers in a single strike, the deadliest such attack against Yemeni government forces in years. A follow-on barrage hit the same … [Read more...] about Yemen’s Ground War Is Restarting in Marib and Hadramout
Two Chokepoints at Once: How Saudi Crude Is Still Reaching Market
Saudi Arabia is the only major exporter currently exposed to both of the region's contested chokepoints in the same quarter. Hormuz has been disrupted since the spring, which pushed volume west across the peninsula to the Red Sea. The Houthi blockade then put pressure on the western outlet. The kingdom's exports have nonetheless continued, and understanding how is more useful … [Read more...] about Two Chokepoints at Once: How Saudi Crude Is Still Reaching Market
The Bab al-Mandeb Transit Fee the Houthis Say They Are Not Charging
A week after declaring the blockade of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis were reported to be weighing transit fees on ships passing the Bab al-Mandeb. The reporting placed the origin of the idea in Tehran, raised during a Houthi delegation's visit in July, with Iranian advisers said to be helping stand up an authority to administer the charges. The Houthi-run Humanitarian Operations … [Read more...] about The Bab al-Mandeb Transit Fee the Houthis Say They Are Not Charging
Saudi Arabia Launched a 14-Nation Red Sea Coalition and Neither Washington Nor Brussels Joined
On 30 July, ten days after the Houthis declared their blockade, Riyadh announced a maritime coalition to protect Red Sea shipping alongside thirteen other states. The United States and the European Union were invited. Both stayed out. That absence is the most informative fact about the coalition. Why Washington did not join American naval capacity in the region is committed … [Read more...] about Saudi Arabia Launched a 14-Nation Red Sea Coalition and Neither Washington Nor Brussels Joined
Houthi Blockade of Saudi Arabia: Bab al-Mandeb Traffic Fell 24 Percent and Then Stopped Falling
The Houthi maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared on 20 July 2026, produced a sharp and then remarkably flat effect on traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb. Transits fell from 354 in the week of 13 to 19 July to 269 in the week beginning 20 July, a drop of roughly 24 percent. Preliminary figures for the following week showed 266. The decline arrived immediately and then held … [Read more...] about Houthi Blockade of Saudi Arabia: Bab al-Mandeb Traffic Fell 24 Percent and Then Stopped Falling